The Art of Modeling Dynamic Systems: Forecasting for Chaos, Randomness and Determinism (Dover Books on Computer Science)

I'm surprised to see rave reviews of this strange book.It did not help me to get an overview of the ideasand practical issues in modeling dynamic systems.I applaud the author for attempting to distill what hehas learned in his career (and the book does feel likea career retrospective), but the book feels like aloosely-organized collection of miscellaneous observations.For example, the first part of the book covers mathematicalfoundations. Instead of clearly covering basic concepts andintuitions in each of the relevant areas, the author simplymakes a bunch of personal insights. I found them mostly uselessfor areas I don't know, and strange or misleading forareas I do know.As another example of the book's strangeness, in the firstchapter he spends some time discussing constructive mathematics,which does not seem to be something he understands well, orthat is relevant to the rest of the book.Edit: I picked up the book tonight to see if I haveexaggerated. Perhaps "a loosely-organized collection ofmiscellaneous observations" is a bit strong. But looking,for example, at the "classical analysis" chapter, I can'tsee that it achieves the author's goal: to "tell thegeneral reader what this material attempts to do and givea new perspective on it to those already possessing thistraining". And as an example of the kinds of strangecomments found throughout the book, section 17.2, onMarkov processes, starts with "The Markov chain assumesthat an adequate description of a system is given by afinite number of state values."Still, the author deserves credit for aiming to fillthe gap between technical books and popularizations.

This book provides an excellent overview of the general approaches to modelling dynamic systems. One strong advantage of the book is that the actual technical materials presented, while their concepts are in no way trivial, do not require specialist or graduate level of mathematics. The book quite well manages to avoid being a dense read and at the same time provide a wide breadth of information.One note to be said is that the book, despite its reader-friendly technical prerequisite, does not seem to be intended for a beginning student in an undergraduate curriculum. Many of the concepts and presentations can be fully appreciated under the light of a more experienced reader who wishes to broaden his perspectives or to refresh on some of the general techniques. Some comments in the book about constructive mathematics are quite interesting as well for readers who have not seen them before, but they may confuse beginning students. I would put the book's target audience on advanced undergraduate level.

I was disappointed by this book. It is ambitious in its title and aims. It covers an enormous range of topics. The book is a philosophical treatise from an experienced practitioner. The scope of material though broad is more superficial than I expected and the structure more disconnected than I anticipated.There are some broad themes in the book. The author encourages the reader to look at dynamical systems within a classification system relating to level of randomness. The other major theme is a constructivism over formality in applied Mathematics. This recurrent refrain was unnecessary. The repetition whenever an example of unsatisfactory nature of the concept of infinity in real world context of finite precision was not edifying.I was looking forward to deeper insights. The book did provide me insight into many of my own deficiencies of education. However, it is a book that kept pointing from itself to somewhere else without providing (me) sufficient depth and connection to make the journey worthwhile. This may reflect the patchiness of my own education. However, the books title overstates its content for this reader.

This book is one of a few that fills such a need for those seeking to develop their own models of dynamic systems. It asks you to casually re-examine the natural world and challenges you to come up with a way to view dynamic and interdependent systems mathematically. It explains the role of research and how to develop your own methods and approaches by keeping perspective with other disciplines. Truly a help in identifying relationships and attempting to express them mathematically.

great

I find myself agreeing with all the comments made so far.It's not too common to find a book that is able to describe in simple terms, such a large and diverse range of mathematical tools.The author uses a framework - to tie together tools used in describing and handling deterministic, semi deterministic, and stochastic systems. For an example of Deterministic, try ODE's (ordinary differential equations), for semi deterministic - try Periodic but noisy wave-forms (some stock prices), and finally Stochastic - Random looking waveforms that have underlying patterns that can be described using either using Chaotic indicators (Hurst, Liapunov ) or probability type descriptors.This book is the kind of thing you needed to help steer you through those dry mathematical books that are divorced from reality - A sort of classification system for deciphering what kind of gunpowder was used in those display's of intellectual fireworks from the tops of ivory towers. Kinda "So thats what all that maths means, but in plain english".A depth of understanding, for practical application, without intellectual egotism and opaqueness. (But then maybe I'm just a bit thick ... :)I'd tend to call this book as an equivalent to the Rosetta Stone for the maths of dynamical systems.You may not use it directly - but you will benefit and grow in understanding from its' plain and simple sign posts along your journey.It has its place on my book shelf.

This book reeks of years of experience in modelling dynamic systems. Modelling is an art rather than a science, and it is good to see a text which uses this approach rather than a purely mathematical one. The Art lies in applying the best models when analysing a problem or creating a new solution, and there is much guidance here - with references to other publications for the mathematically inclined.But mathematics isn't avoided entirely; it is explained and "the rest is left to the reader". This makes for a re-introduction to mathematics for someone like me whose formal education ended long before dynamic systems (or chaos theory) was discovered. It covers most of the theory and hints at the application of the formulae, but the best value is extracted from the author's constant reminders that modelling is an art, and that its value llies in selecting the right model rather than a more complicated one.Recommended.

I was looking forward to a good read on a topic of great interest to me. Unfortunately, Amazon sent me a copy that had numerous pages with lines that ran outside the print margin (and therefore could not be read). I later found another buyer complaining about this issue. This batch should have been taken off the shelf to save us time and trouble (I returned the book).I could not read the book due to this issue but still tried to glean through the content which appears to be generic high-level stuff without very many real-world examples. Maybe of historic importance to some but there are other more recent publications that provide better coverage of the topics. Don't bother buying this and see if you can find a copy in your local college library instead.

Un libro muy interesante. Se trata de una lectura que no se pierde en las matemáticas e intenta dar una visión general de como modelar sistemas dinámicos. En mi vida profesional he tenido que modelar algunos y viene bien una visión general a todo tipo de sistemas.Hay que tener en cuenta que se escribió a principios de los 90, por lo que no hay que saltarse la introducción del autor a la edición para Dover. Hace reflexiones interesantes sobre la evolución de su estudio en estos últimos años y añade bibliografía interesante.No hay que perder de vista el factor calidad/precio... Libros similares más actulizados (aunque no en la esencia) cuestan más de 50 euros.

O livro veio com várias páginas com a impressão perto da borda apagada, impossibilitando a leitura do conteúdo. O problema continuou a persistir mesmo depois da devolução pelo mesmo livro, indicando que o problema está relacionado ao lote ao invés do livro individual.

This book offers a very good description about the taxonomy of dynamic systems modeling